Poll Shows 66% of Lebanese Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Weapons
Statistics Lebanon found that a majority of the sect now prefers the army to manage arms, though trust in Hezbollah remains high.
By Aiko Soto ·
Recent data indicates a shift in the security priorities of Lebanon's Shi'ite community regarding the balance of power between the state and Hezbollah. A September survey by Statistics Lebanon found that 66.4% of 800 Shi'ite respondents support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% prefer the group retain control of its arsenal.
The poll, reported in mid-October by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org, places the decision on war and peace largely with the government. Specifically, 71.1% of respondents said the state should hold sole authority over these decisions. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future direction.
Confidence in the national military is high within the group. Approximately 78.5% of participants expressed trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces. Furthermore, 51.1% identified the army as the institution best positioned to guarantee long-term security, compared to 16.5% who selected Hezbollah. This preference suggests a move away from the group's traditional claim to be the primary security guarantor for the sect.
Sentiment toward Hezbollah's performance is mixed. While 59.5% still express trust in the organization, 67.4% stated it has either failed or only partially met its goals in the conflict with Israel. Additionally, 42.1% reported feelings of disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership. KAN journalist Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's existing social support networks sustain its strength until another entity fills the political vacuum.
These findings contrast sharply with earlier data. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, showed 87.5% of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni argued that the group's influence relies on social networks, political power, and historical marginalization. They suggested weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace its services.
Local indicators show growing wariness of the group's infrastructure. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, in their building due to fears of Israeli strikes. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. These measures follow a new war that began in March 2026 and caused heavy destruction in southern Lebanon.
