U.S. Iran Conflict: Analysts predict third war after midterms
Experts say fighting may resume after November 3, with attacks likely targeting Gulf energy and internet infrastructure.
By Ayanda Boateng ·
Two wars with Iran have already occurred in the past 18 months under President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Analysts now warn that a third round of conflict could begin once the U.S. midterm election votes are counted on November 3.
Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst who served as a military intelligence official for more than 20 years, said a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He currently works with the Institute for National Security Studies. Citrinowicz stated that Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf.
The first conflict started in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. It lasted 12 days and ended with a fragile ceasefire. Fighting returned in February following a large U.S. military buildup. Israeli forces struck Iran's senior leadership during that phase, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz expects the next phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications networks. He specifically identified internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as probable targets. He also noted that Iran might use its land army to launch limited attacks on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain, which host U.S. bases.
Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes have been limited. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the election. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits and mines.
A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iran seeks relief from sanctions, reparations for damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success.
Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon would handle retaliation. They may target soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.
The human cost of the conflict is high. Western non-governmental organizations report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media count over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.
The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, according to The New York Times and other U.S. outlets. It is unknown if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government.
Citrinowicz warned that political calculation combined with an inflated Iranian development could produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour noted that asking Iran to change its identity will not succeed.
