Polls show sharp drop in support for Trump among key 2024 voter groups
Hispanic and young voters who backed the president in 2024 are shifting to Democrats at more than four times the rate of Harris supporters, according to new data.
By Aiko Soto ·
Republican support among the demographic groups that carried Donald Trump to victory in 2024 is eroding rapidly as midterm election day arrives on November 4. New polling data indicates a measurable shift in voter allegiance, with Hispanic and young voters moving away from the GOP at a rate that outpaces defections from the opposing coalition. This trend threatens the razor-thin congressional majority Republicans currently hold.
A new Politico poll conducted by PF Global found that approximately 9% of voters who supported Trump in 2024 plan to cast a ballot for a Democrat in the current election. In contrast, only about 2% of former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 backers now intend to vote for a Republican. NBC, ABC, and Pew Research have produced similar findings, confirming the direction of the shift.
The decline is most pronounced among two specific demographics that were central to Trump’s previous win. At the end of 2024, 56% of Hispanic Trump voters identified as MAGA Republicans. By October of this year, that figure had fallen to 37%, indicating growing frustration with the party label. Among young voters aged 20 to 29, the percentage of those who said they were certain to vote dropped from 50% at the end of last year to 38% in October.
Party officials have responded to these numbers with increased campaign activity in the South. Speaker Mike Johnson is conducting a final campaign swing through South Texas on Tuesday, aiming to address Hispanic voter concerns regarding mass deportations and the economy. Republicans are also allocating millions of dollars in late-stage spending to states with large Black populations, including Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana, where turnout appears to be surging.
Pollsters attribute the shift largely to the Iran war and its economic fallout. Republicans are expressing concern over the impact of lingering inflation and high prices on working-class voters of all races. Specific anxiety centers on young men, whom GOP officials fear may not show up to the polls in sufficient numbers to secure a majority.
The party’s current strategy involves courting the very groups it has spent the last two years critiquing. While the administration has pursued policies targeting Black and Latino communities, including gerrymandering efforts and debates over diversity initiatives, the focus has now turned to rewinning their trust. Democrats, however, note that Republicans retain a strong base among white voters who rely heavily on right-wing media outlets for news.
Early voting records across the country are breaking previous benchmarks, with polls leaning toward Democrats. The coming days will see the final push for votes in swing districts, where the margin between a Republican hold and a Democratic takeover is narrow.
