Israeli Opposition Fractures Over 58-Seat Minority Government Plan

Israel’s political landscape is shifting as the opposition camp prepares for the next election, but a deep disagreement over strategy is emerging before the votes are even cast. While most surveys show the anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead of the ruling coalition, the parties seeking change currently lack the 61 seats required for a stable majority. This shortfall has led Gadi Eisenkot to propose a minority government, a plan that has immediately drawn resistance from his own allies.

Eisenkot, who aims to lead the opposition and serve as prime minister, envisions a government formed with 58 or 59 seats. Under this scenario, the new cabinet would win a confidence vote without permanent support from 61 members of the Knesset and would then seek to expand its base. Legally, a government can be sworn in with a simple majority in the confidence vote, meaning abstentions from opposition members would allow it to take office. However, removing a sitting government via a constructive vote of no confidence still requires 61 votes, a threshold the bloc currently does not meet.

The proposal has split the leadership. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, insist on a Zionist majority and refuse to rely on Arab party votes or abstentions. Avigdor Liberman is even more rigid, categorically rejecting any minority government, even a transitional one. Liberman stated that another election would be preferable to a government that fails to meet his conditions. He has suggested that some Likud members might join a cabinet without Netanyahu, though he has not named any specific candidates and no public negotiations are currently underway.

Despite their strategic differences, the parties are nearing an agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. This move is seen as a way to control the parliamentary agenda even if Netanyahu remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in the new term. To secure this position, the bloc could draw on members from Arab parties. Candidates under consideration include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, as well as Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list.

Liberman estimated that one-third of the outgoing coalition might vote against Ohana, but they would need to do so openly. The opposition also aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, modify conscription laws, and limit the prime minister’s tenure. Liberman wants to bar anyone facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on the order of these legislative moves, and obstacles remain, including constitutional hurdles and the lingering memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government’s collapse.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but did not resolve their strategic clash. Leadership rivalry continues, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett viewing his former role as prime minister as a natural credential for the top spot. The bloc’s ability to unify will determine whether Israel moves toward a new government or faces another round of political turmoil.