Palestinian voters may decide Israel's next government

Palestinian citizens of Israel are projected to win between 12 and 15 seats in next week's election, a number that could determine which party holds power in the 120-seat Knesset. Most polls indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its current majority. However, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also forecast to fall short of the 61 seats required to govern. This leaves the votes of the minority community, which constitutes about 20% of the population, as the deciding factor.

The Palestinian seats are expected to be split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al. Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than two decades, said his party is determined to use high turnout to bring the current government down. He stated that high participation among the Arab community is a primary tool in achieving that goal.

Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have worked to make such an alliance politically toxic, using campaign slogans such as 'It's the right or Palestine' and 'Bibi or Tibi.' Despite these warnings, coalitions have been formed before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now in the opposition. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition talks with Abbas.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages mixed staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its position once results arrive. He described the situation as a matter of mathematics, noting that one plus one is two. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote despite the political friction.

For Palestinian politicians, the choice is described as difficult. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi characterized the decision as being between 'bad and worse,' contrasting the opposition with Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said fear is the central motive for voters. He cited the death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank as deepening worries about another four years of far-right ministers. He said voters understand the danger if the current coalition returns to power.

Turnout has historically been depressed by distrust of the system. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that the election falls two days before Kafr Qassim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 people. He said there is no clarity about what comes afterwards, a sentiment that reflects how powerless many voters feel.