Musk disputes NASA panel's 22-flight lunar fueling estimate

Elon Musk rejected a recent estimate that 22 Starship launches are required to refuel a lunar lander, asserting that the actual number will be between six and eight. This public disagreement followed a quarterly meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held on Thursday.

Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut and panel member, flagged the fueling process as a primary risk for Artemis IV. The mission is scheduled to place a crew on the Moon in 2028. Precourt noted that the last estimate for required fuelings stood at approximately 22 flights. He stated, "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander."

Eric Berger, a reporter for Ars Technica, shared Precourt's remarks on X, prompting an immediate response from Musk. "That's way too high," Musk wrote. "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

The discrepancy stems from the physical limits of the Starship vehicle. The rocket consumes nearly all its propellant to reach Earth orbit, necessitating an orbital depot for refueling before the lunar ascent. SpaceX plans to launch a storage tank first, followed by tanker vehicles that dock to transfer their remaining fuel. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander departs for the Moon.

The total number of launches directly impacts mission duration and cost. Berger calculated that even if SpaceX achieves a pace of two launches per week by the end of 2027, filling a depot to the panel's standard would take about three months. The final count depends on propellant delivery capacity and boil-off losses in the vacuum of space.

NASA's estimate appears to rely on the current lifting capacity of Starship. Musk's lower range assumes a more capable version of the vehicle. This is not the first time Musk has contested these figures. In 2021, he dismissed a government estimate of 16 launches as "extremely unlikely," predicting that eight tankers would be the maximum requirement.

Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying "a large number of firsts." The mission relies on hardware SpaceX has yet to fully fly, specifically the upgraded V3 Starship for refueling operations. Precourt also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman for working to remove obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not require orbital refueling for its initial flight.