Moscow Airports Face Daily Drone-Related Closures

Moscow's four main airports have suspended operations almost daily in October due to Ukrainian drone activity, with some shutdowns lasting as long as nine hours. The disruption affects Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo. According to the investigative outlet Agentstvo, this pattern marks a sharp increase in interruptions compared to previous months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined this strategy in early September, stating that Ukraine would work to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. He told airlines, insurers, and travelers that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The closures are triggered by a safety procedure used by Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya. Known as the carpet protocol, this rule closes airspace over a region if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are fired, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Once activated, strict limits apply to all air traffic in the area. This automatic response turns minor airspace incursions into major logistical halts for commercial carriers.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone presents a military threat. He compared the current situation to disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis. Military analyst Jan Matvejev agreed that Ukraine can easily disrupt traffic around Moscow. He stated that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry currently produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones every day.

Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, reported that these efforts are just getting started. He cited well-informed sources who believe the campaign will expand. Matvejev added that Russian air defenses have not proven fully effective against these drones. He suggested that if Russia could shoot them down easily, they would have done so by now. He also noted that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if they were available.

Experts warn that the current setup poses risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the Christmas 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which investigators say was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones. That incident killed 38 people. Matvejev stated that little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since that crash. While shooting a low-flying drone with a machine gun poses low risk to aircraft, missiles present a different danger. Mass production defects could send a missile toward a nearby airliner.

Matvejev emphasized that drones do not need explosives to cause harm. A collision with an airplane can be severe. A drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, weighing dozens of kilograms. Airports outside Moscow have also felt the impact. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, including Kyiv's main airport and Boryspil near the capital in September.

Foreign airlines must now weigh the military threat, demand, and insurance costs to decide if they will keep flying to Russia. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they may sharply raise premiums, which would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines went out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said the decision to stay depends on the price airlines have to pay for the danger they face.